Structural breaks in the mean of dividend-price ratios: Implications of learning on stock return predictability

In their out-of-sample predictions of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks, Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) implicitly assume that economic agents’ perception of the regime-specific mean for the dividend-price ratio is time-invariant within a regime. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and employ least squares learning with constant gain (or constant-gain learning) in estimating economic agents’ time-varying perception for the mean of dividend-price ratio. We obtain better out-of-sample predictions of stock returns than in Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) for both the U.S. and Japanese stock markets. Our empirical results suggest that economic agents’ learning plays an important role in the dynamics of stock returns.     

农村改厕新技术新产品推广应用问题与对策研究

［目的］厕所既是一个国家和地区发展水准和文明程度的体现，也与人民群众的健康息息相关。随着我国农村人居环境整治力度的不断加强，农村改厕新技术新产品不断涌现，加强其市场化研究可为建立农村改厕新技术新产品市场化机制、打赢“厕所革命”攻坚战提供决策参考。［方法］文章基于农村改厕新技术新产品区域适用性分析与各地农村改厕工作推进情况，结合实地调研形成的判断。［结果］我国农村改厕存在政府支持政策体系不完善、新技术新产品研发推广市场导向不足、行业缺乏规范和农户参与意识薄弱等主要问题。［结论］破除农村改厕新技术新产品市场化困境，需要科学合理加大资金支持、搭建新技术新产品市场化平台、构建政产学研协作推进机制、加强农村改厕的规范化管理、鼓励多种形式的社会化服务、加大宣传培训促进市场推广，多措并举建立市场化机制。     

Governing Suburbia through regionalized land-use planning? Experiences from the Greater Frankfurt region

This paper explores the case of peripheral settlement growth in the Greater Frankfurt (Main) region within current debates on global suburbanization. Within Germany’s sophisticated spatial planning regime, Greater Frankfurt’s system of regionalized land-use planning marks an ambitious initiative to contain urban sprawl. Nonetheless, expansive peripheral settlement growth, and socio-spatial polarization remain distinct characteristics of the booming region. Analyzing state regulation vis-à-vis dynamics of capitalist urbanization and private authoritarianism, we decipher the complex governance arrangements producing this, at first sight, contradictory simultaneity. We uncover the rationales of local growth politics of autonomous municipalities and the region’s multiplied institutional fragmentation that undermine planning ambitions to contain suburban growth. We conclude by critically assessing the political economies of suburbanization in Greater Frankfurt and point to prospects for regional reform.     

跨境电商英语沟通中的语用移情策略研究

跨境电商的飞速发展离不开跨境电商英语沟通质量的提升,跨境电商英语沟通是在交流过程中,买卖双方传递、共享信息和感情的过程。运用语用学的移情理论,结合跨境电商英语沟通特点,从礼貌语、委婉语、模糊语和幽默语等方面,建构语用移情策略,有助于缩短买卖双方的心理距离,达到预期的语用效果,推动畅通有效地跨境电商沟通。     

管理会计在VBSE实践教学平台中的创新应用研究--基于高职会计技能大赛管理会计赛项视角

数字经济时代下各行业经营环境愈加复杂,传统的财务会计已经无法有效满足企业内部管理的需要,急需向管理会计方向转型。VBSE实践教学平台通过模拟企业真实经营环境让更多学生有机会感受和体验公司财务工作,但其内容仍然以会计核算、纳税申报、报表编制等传统知识点为主,缺少管理会计方面的分析、预测、战略制定等经营管理决策活动的内容设计。以高职会计技能大赛管理会计赛项为视角,分别从资金、营运、成本和绩效四个岗位研究管理会计在VBSE实践教学平台中的融入和创新应用,旨在完善VBSE实践教学平台中的管理会计建设,培养更多管理会计人才。     

亲子亲合对农村留守儿童孤独感的影响研究

根据亲子沟通频率(高-低)、亲子亲密度(强-弱)将亲子亲合分为积极型亲子亲合、消极型亲子亲合、默契型亲子亲合、放任型亲子亲合四种类型。通过采用西安交通大学课题组与西南财经大学课题组2017年在四川省金堂县联合开展的留守儿童调查数据,探讨亲子亲合对农村留守儿童孤独感的影响。调查发现,四川省金堂县农村留守儿童存在较高的孤独感问题,基于logit模型进行实证分析发现,不同亲子亲合类型对农村留守儿童孤独感的影响存在差异,积极型亲子亲合有利于缓解农村留守儿童孤独感,默契型亲子亲合对农村留守儿童孤独感的缓解作用不显著,放任型亲子亲合加剧农村留守儿童孤独感。提出鼓励多元主体参与构建农村留守儿童关爱服务体系,促进农村留守儿童的健康成长。     

Here comes Generation Z: Millennials as managers

As the workplace continues to change, a new generational cohort—Generation Z, sometimes referred to as iGen—is beginning to enter the workforce. At the same time, millennials are now progressing in their careers and will be challenged with managing these incoming workers. The purpose of this article is to provide a contextual overview that identifies and illuminates some of the defining work-related characteristics of these two youngest generations in the workplace to increase understanding of the potential intergenerational conflict between these cohorts and develop leadership strategies that can be utilized to increase employee morale and productivity. This article analyzes the millennial supervisor-Gen Z subordinate relationship based on generational cohort theory, leader-member exchange (LMX) theory, and the work values framework.     

基于台风危害的厦门地区园林树木受损 原因研究

基于2016年9月16日1614号台风对厦门绿地的严 重影响，通过为期2个月对台风现场实地调研以及相关部门抢 险的数据统计，第一时间了解此次台风中厦门重要园林树种的 受害状况，分析树木在台风中的受损原因。台风灾害发生后给 厦门市的园林树木以及景观带来巨大的损害，因此对于厦门地 区园林树木受损原因的研究非常有必要。研究了受损原因后， 才可以在灾前以及灾后对重要的园林树木种进行栽培养护管 理，增加厦门绿化的抗灾能力以及灾后的及时恢复工作。     

Non-stationary additive utility and time consistency

Within a continuous time life cycle model of consumption and savings, I study the properties of the most general class of additive intertemporal utility functionals. They are not necessarily stationary, and do not necessarily multiplicatively separate a discount factor from “per-period utility”. I prove rigorously that time consistency holds if and only if the per-period felicity function is multiplicatively separable in $t$, the date of decision and in $s$, the date of consumption, or equivalently, if the Fisherian instantaneous subjective discount rate does not depend on $t$. The model allows to explain “anomalies in intertemporal choice” even when the agents are time consistent and various empirical regularities. On the other hand, the model allows to characterize mathematically the “effective consumption profile” of naive, time-inconsistent agents.     

Cultural distance and international trade in services: A disaggregate view

In this paper, we estimate the effect of “cultural distance” on bilateral trade in services. The measure of cultural distance we use is based on scores that reflect country averages of individuals’ attitudes towards inequality, self-orientation, competition, uncertainty, traditions, and indulgence. Controlling for standard ingredients of gravity equations, we show that an aggregate measure of cultural distance has a significantly negative effect on total bilateral services trade. Once we take a more disaggregate view, we find that the strength of this effect differs across various types of services and various aspects of cultural distance.